The fentanyl supply chain is drying up, while law enforcement efforts have increased, reducing overdose deaths.
For over a decade, fentanyl has wreaked havoc on communities across the United States, largely because of its low cost, high potency, and ease of production. It has been one of the primary contributors to the ongoing opioid crisis, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives with many individuals consuming the drug without realizing it and experiencing deadly results.
However, in recent months, a surprising shift has been occurring in the supply of fentanyl making its way into the U.S., leading to what some experts believe is a significant decrease in availability and potency of the deadly synthetic opioid. Researchers have noticed the street supply appears to be dwindling down, while, at the same time, prices are rising, and the potency of the drug is being reduced. This trend has been observed in various regions, from Ohio to West Virginia, Maryland, and Arizona, and the combination of the three factors essentially eliminates the main reasons why the drug became so popular in the first place.
While skepticism still exists, a growing body of evidence points to a noticeable shortage of fentanyl in the illicit market, which could explain the recent decline in overdose deaths in many parts of the country. Some experts attribute this development to a combination of international and domestic factors. Internationally, pressure has been mounting on the Mexican drug cartels responsible for manufacturing and smuggling fentanyl into the U.S., as well as on the Chinese suppliers that have been the precursor chemicals needed to produce the drug. According to government officials, law enforcement efforts have also significantly ramped up, resulting in a massive increase in fentanyl seizures at the U.S.-Mexico border. In fact, in the two-year span between August 2022 and August 2024 alone, nearly 70,000 pounds of fentanyl were seized.
In addition to an increase in the amount being confiscated before making its way into the market, there has been increased cooperation between the U.S. and Mexican governments, as well as diplomatic efforts aimed at curbing the supply of precursor chemicals from China. These efforts appear to have had a tangible impact, with some experts suggesting that drug cartels may be deliberately cutting the potency of the fentanyl they distribute in an attempt to reduce the heat from law enforcement.
One of the more puzzling aspects of this fentanyl shortage is the introduction of a chemical known as BTMPS into the drug supply. This industrial substance, which is used in manufacturing plastics, has been found in fentanyl samples across the country even though it offers no psychoactive effects and does not appear to contribute to the high that fentanyl users seek. This has perplexed experts who believe that its widespread use suggests that it is being added deliberately, potentially as a means of diluting the fentanyl and stretching out the supply.
While the decreased supply and lower potencies makes it seem like things turning in the right direction, there is still concern that the drop in fentanyl availability could drive some users to engage in riskier behaviors, such as injecting the drug instead of smoking it, which could increase overdose rates. Additionally, the variability in the potency of street fentanyl could create challenges for users trying to manage their doses, putting them at greater risk of accidental overdose.
Nevertheless, the decline in fentanyl-related deaths is undeniable. In 2023, overdose deaths involving fentanyl dropped by 20%, and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reported that this trend has accelerated in 2024. Public health data from states like Ohio show even steeper declines in fatal overdoses, with some regions seeing reductions of up to a third. Harm reduction advocates and public health officials have also noted an increase in the use of addiction treatments, such as long-acting buprenorphine, which may be contributing to the reduction in overdose deaths.
Of course, the opioid epidemic remains a critical public health issue, and the street drug supply continues to be unpredictable and dangerous. Substances like xylazine, a powerful sedative, are still being mixed into fentanyl, which is still posing serious risks to users. Thus, despite the noticeable decline in fentanyl, it’s still important for law enforcement and other parties to sustain their efforts to combat the crisis.
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Fentanyl’s pipeline into the U.S. may be drying up
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